Tropical Storm PABUK Advisory вт, 01.01.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 36W (THIRTYSIX)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 36W (THIRTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
325 NM SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRUGGLING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30
KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, WHICH IS ABOVE THE RJTD ESTIMATE OF T1.5
(25 KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
HIGH (30-40 KTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH HAS
LED TO WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO COMPENSATE FOR THE HIGH VWS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA AND INTO THE GULF OF THAILAND ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 28-29
CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH, AND TURNED
MORE DRAMATICALLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE PAST 6 HOURS THAN
WAS FORECAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 36W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE GULF OF THAILAND AS THE STR EXTENSION RECEDES TO THE
EAST. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE, AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
REMAIN STRONG. HOWEVER, HIGH VWS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL LIMIT THE
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION, ALLOWING A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 72 BEFORE TD 36W CROSSES THE MALAY PENINSULA.
   C. LAND INTERACTION AS TD 36W CROSSES THE MALAY PENINSULA AT TAU
96, AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING TO
30 KTS BY TAU 120. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL SPREADING TO OVER 380 NM BY TAU 120, WITH
HWRF AND ECMWF ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE AND NAVGEM ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE COAMPS-
GFS AND COAMPS-NAVGEM MODELS PREDICT HIGHER INTENSITIES, WHILE HWRF
IS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
SHIPS MODELS ARE ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE
JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
//
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