Tropical Storm TWENTYNINE Advisory чт, 27.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 85NM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED
LLCC IN EIR IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 261539Z 36GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AND A CENTRAL LOW
REFLECTIVITY AREA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
EARLIER (261105Z METOP-A) PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING AN AREA OF 30
KNOT WINDS AND HEDGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T1.5 (25 KTS) FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 29W HAS
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE JET, AND NO
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS) AND
IS TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A
261000Z AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTION SHOWS TD 29W IS A VERY
WEAK WARM CORE SYSTEM. TD 29W IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 29W WILL CONTINUE TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS
THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 36. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DECREASE. TD 29W WILL RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT,
AND THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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