Tropical Storm TWENTYTHREE Advisory пн, 09.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
     TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 359
NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF BANDING CONVECTION LOOSELY ORGANIZED
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, BUT SHOWING IMPROVED
CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 25 KNOTS WHICH
BASED ON LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY ISLANDS AND SHIPS
TRANSITING THROUGH THE REGION. OBSERVATIONS FURTHER AWAY AND
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE MUCH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND
ASSOCIATED SEAS DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FUNNELING THROUGH THE
LUZON STRAIT, BUT AT THIS TIME ARE NOT WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
INDUCING STEADY EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE RAPID
WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION, WIND SHEAR IS
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE AND SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT. SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE ALSO FAVORABLE NEAR 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TD 23W IS
TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A WELL-
ESTABLISHED MID-TO-LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE
EAST CHINA SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
     A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
     B. TD 23W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST, GUIDED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TD 23W
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVER THE VERY WARM WATER OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
LANDFALL IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHERN REGION OF VIETNAM AROUND
TAU 30. TD 23W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY
TAU 48. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BOTH
TRACK AND SPEED, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
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