Tropical Storm BUALOI Advisory пт, 25.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 582 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DECAYING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH IS NOW DISPLACED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241554Z ATMS 89GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS LOW-LEVEL BANDING THAT WHEN EXTRAPOLATED TO 241800Z SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM RJTD, KNES, AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. TY 22W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON ANALYSIS OF RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY.
   B. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MIDLATITUDE
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS IT GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. TY 22W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS VWS INCREASES TO VERY
STRONG LEVELS (40-60 KNOTS). NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 90NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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