Tropical Storm FAXAI Advisory Вс, 08.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 329 NM SOUTH OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A DEEP COMPACT STRUCTURE AND A SHARPLY
OUTLINED 10-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE
NEAR-SURFACE 071617Z AMSR2 36GHZ SCAN THAT LINED UP JUST BEHIND THE
EIR EYE THAT IS TILTED SLIGHTLY FORWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
115KTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0/115KTS AND
REFLECTS THE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF LOW (5-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ENHANCED BY A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND
FLOW, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) VALUES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY FAXAI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK AS THE STR REMAINS
AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU
12, THE TRACK WILL BECOME MORE POLEWARD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ROUND
THE STR AXIS, CRESTING IT NEAR TAU 12. JUST BEFORE TAU 12, TY 14W
WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER HONSHU NEAR YOKOSUKA. AFTERWARD, IT WILL
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BACK INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN, ALBEIT WITH
COOLER SSTS. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE
MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 120KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO 95KTS BY LANDFALL. CONCURRENTLY AFTER TAU 24, TY 14W WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE, COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 36, AND BY TAU 48, WILL BE REDUCED TO A
45-KT COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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