Tropical Storm FAXAI Advisory чт, 05.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
WEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED LLC
FEATURE IN THE 041811Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST IS CAUSING
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE AND
INHIBITING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, A MODERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
OUTFLOW INTO ANOTHER TUTT CELL TO THE EAST IS PROVIDING VENTILATION
TO THE OFFSET CONVECTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AT 5-15KTS ARE
MOSTLY FAVORABLE. TS 14W IS TRACKING OVER WARM SSTS (30C) UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 14W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, STEERED BY THE STR.
AFTER TAU 48, IT WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND
THE STR AXIS. BY TAU 72, IT WILL CREST THE STR AXIS AFTER IT PASSES
NORTHEAST OF IWO TO. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE
SLOW THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 95KTS BY TAU 72 AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 14W WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD TOWARD JAPAN ON
THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR AXIS, MAKING LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU 96
OVER HONSHU SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO. INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM TO 70KTS BY TAU 96. CONCURRENTLY AT
TAU 96, TS 14W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE KANTO PLAIN, EXITING BACK INTO THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AFTER TAU 108 BEFORE TRANSFORMING INTO A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE
LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM ON THE LEFT MARGIN OF THE ENVELOPE, POSSIBLY
INDICATING EXCESSIVE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TY 15W, FORECAST
TO BE POSITIONED OVER NORTH KOREA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS, HOWEVER,
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET
NAVGEM, DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK SPEED OVER LAND.//
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