Tropical Storm MALAKAS Advisory пт, 15.04.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.8N 139.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 87 NM WEST OF IWO TO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 21 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 42 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TY 02W
BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, BECOMING MORE
ASYMMETRIC WITH THE ENVELOPE OF CLOUDS EXPANDING POLEWARD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING JET. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS GRADUALLY
DEGRADING, WITH A LOSS OF INNER-CORE STRUCTURE AND SPORADIC FLARING
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
141907Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS
BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AS WELL AS SATCON.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 88 KTS AT 141614Z
   CIMSS ADT: 82 KTS AT 141740Z
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 02W IS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AROUND THE STR AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE INCREASINGLY IMPACTED BY
MID-LATITUDE DYNAMICS AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS JAPAN.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING WITH MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND INCREASING WITH TIME. AS SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL AND DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE VORTEX, TY 02W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND
BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN 24 HOURS. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM IS
FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY A 90 NM SPREAD AT TAU 36, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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