Tropical Storm WUTIP Advisory ср, 27.02.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 31//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) BUT
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY ERODE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 261748Z 37GHZ SSMI IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS ASSESSED FROM THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW AND T5.5/102KTS FROM RJTD AND
REFLECTS THE DETERIORATED STATUS OF TY 02W. THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES AND THE INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS STRONG AND IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
ERODING CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE NEAR 27
DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS IN A COL AREA BETWEEN THE
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A
SECONDARY STR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY WUTIP WILL REMAIN QS IN THE NEAR TERM THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD AS A LOWER REFLECTION OF THE STR TO THE EAST RESUMES
STEERING. THIS STORM MOTION WILL BE DIRECTLY AGAINST THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FLOW, FURTHER EXACERBATING THE IMPACT OF VWS TO OVER 30 KNOTS,
CAUSING A MORE RAPID DETERIORATION THAT WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK BUT WITH INCREASING SPREAD TO OVER 250NM BY
TAU 72. THIS, PLUS THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN THE TC WILL EJECT FROM THE
COL AREA LEND AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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