Tropical Storm WUTIP Advisory пт, 22.02.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
  TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 412 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SLOWLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE OBSCURED LLCC. A 211728Z SSMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE INDICATED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO SMALL, WELL-
DEFINED LLCC AND PROVIDED EXCELLENT SUPPORT TO THE HIGH CONFIDENCE
PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS
IS SET WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW.
THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES ARE COMING BACK
UNREALISTICALLY LOW AT 63 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
TY 02W IS TRACKING THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH ROBUST
WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VWS. THE ACTUAL WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE
CIMSS ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE AS THE STORM MOTION IS IN PHASE WITH THE
SHEAR VECTOR. THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A LESS THAN 10NM TILT AS
SHOWN IN AN ANALYSIS OF THE 37GHZ VERSUS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY. SSTS
REMAIN NEAR 29 CELSIUS PROVIDING A SOURCE OF ENERGY FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION. TY 02W CONTINUES TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER, WHILE THE RECURVE SCENARIO REMAINS THE
FAVORED SOLUTION, THIS FORECAST DOES SHIFT THE TRACK TO THE WEST IN
FAVOR OF THE ECMWF’S LESS AGGRESSIVE RECURVE SOLUTION.
   B. TY 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR CENTERED TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH TAU 36. BEYOND THIS POINT AND THROUGH TAU 72,
THE RIDGE SLOWLY ERODES FROM THE WEST DUE TO MASS LOSS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 180 KNOT JET MAX TRANSITING TO THE
NORTH. COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER CHINA, THE NET EFFECT WILL BE TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
AND ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COL REGION JUST WEST OF THE
MARIANAS, WHICH WILL ALLOW TY 02W TO TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK OF 105 KNOTS AT TAU 36.
BEYOND TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS INCREASED VWS AND
COOLING SSTS COMBINE TO OFFSET THE INCREASED OUTFLOW AS THE SYSTEM
BEINGS INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A SPREAD OF
55NM AT TAU 36, BUT QUICKLY DIVERGING BEYOND THIS POINT. WHILE ALL
MODELS AGREE ON THE TURN POLEWARD AROUND TAU 48, THERE ARE WIDE
VARIANCES IN THE DEGREE OF THE RECURVE AND BY TAU 72 SPREAD INCREASES
TO 175NM. THE JTWC TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 LIES WEST OF THE CONSENSUS
TRACK, HEDGED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW MUCH INTERACTION THE
SYSTEM HAS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL BE PASSING TO THE
NORTH BETWEEN TAUS 96 AND 120, AND WHETHER THE SYSTEM IS CAPTURED BY
THIS TROUGH OR DECAPITATED BY THE ASSOCIATED VWS. THE JTWC FORECAST
FAVORS THE DECAPITATION SCENARIO, AND DEPICTS THE SYSTEM MOVING
POLEWARD AND BEING SHEARED APART WITH THE STEERING FLOW, THEN SHIFTING
TO A LOW-LEVEL TRANSIENT RIDGE EAST OF JAPAN. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
WEAKEN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AS DRY, STABLE AIR WILL ENCROACH FROM THE
NORTH, AND VWS INCREASES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN,
ESPECIALLY BY TAU 120, WITH A SPREAD OF 800NM BETWEEN THE GFS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ECMWF TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE SPLIT,
WITH GFS, JGSM, GALWEM AND EGRR FAVORING THE RAPID RECURVE, WHILE THE
ECMWF, NAVGEM AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FAVORING THE DECAPITATION
SCENARIO. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
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