Tropical Storm SAOLA Advisory Вс, 29.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (SAOLA) WARNING NR 37//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A 30-NM RAGGED EYE.
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO GET SHEARED POLEWARD; HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE REMAINS INTACT AND WRAPPED EVEN TIGHTER INTO THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE AND ON A RADAR
COMPOSITE LOOP FROM JMA WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HEDGED ON THE HIGHER END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES TO REFLECT THE
TIGHTER WRAP. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 27W IS NOW IN AN AREA
OF STRONG (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, ITS STORM
MOTION THAT IS IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW AND THE STRONG
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ARE OFFSETTING THE VWS. ON THE
NEGATIVE SIDE, THE SYSTEM IS NOW APPROACHING THE COLD BAROCLINIC
ZONE, AS EVIDENCED BY AN ENTRAINMENT OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS LINES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE EIR LOOP. THE CYCLONE IS ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY SAOLA WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD, SKIRTING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAPAN. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOW HAVE AN
OVERALL NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE A GRADUAL TO RAPID
WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 12, AS THE SYSTEM GETS EMBEDDED DEEPER IN THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE, TY 27W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND
BECOME A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD
BY TAU 24. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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