Tropical Storm SAOLA Advisory чт, 26.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (SAOLA)
WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (SAOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 642 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED EIR AND A TIMELY
251800Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND PGTW, BASED ON A RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS AS WELL AS THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM AND
IMPROVED OVERALL OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
QUADRANTS. TS 27W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TOWARD A BREAK SITUATED
NEAR OKINAWA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 251203Z ASCAT
IMAGE.
   B. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 225NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT THE RECURVE
POINT NEAR OKINAWA. TS 27W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AND IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE JUST EAST OF
OKINAWA WHILE BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). NAVGEM
REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER INDICATING A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
TRACK (THROUGH TAU 120) OVER TAIWAN. ANALYSIS OF NAVGEM FIELDS
INDICATES AN ERRONEOUS TRACK DUE TO EXCESSIVE DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION THEN A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM
GETS TRAPPED WITHIN A STRONG COLD SURGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN TO THE
EAST CHINA SEA. TS 27W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 72 AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH VENTING INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 27W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL
COMPLETE ETT NEAR TAU 96 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHRACTERISTICS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE AN ARCTIC COLD SURGE OVER JAPAN NEAR TAU 120, WHICH
COULD AFFECT BOTH TRACK SPEED AND INTENSITY, HOWEVER, IT'S TOO EARLY
TO ACCURATELY ASSESS THE IMPACT OR TO JUSTIFY CHANGING THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72,
THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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