Tropical Storm TWENTYTWO Advisory пн, 25.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHWEST EMANATING FROM A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER OVER HAINAN, CHINA. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE REGION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON SURFACE PRESSURE
OF 1001 REPORTED FROM QIONGHAI, CHINA, AND A 241427Z METOP-A ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWING 30 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AT THE SWATH EDGE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL AS EASTERLY UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXERTING
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST
IS FAIRLY ROBUST AND FUELING THE FLARING CONVECTION. CURRENTLY TD
22W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH ANCHORED OVER TAIWAN AND THE
EASTERN SHORE CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED REEMERGE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
TONKIN GULF IN THE NEXT SIX HOURS REMAINING WELL INTACT WITH A
MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. BY TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF VIETNAM AND BEGIN DISSIPATING
AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND. TD 22W IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE
BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL BUT BEGINS TO DIVERGE
THEREAFTER AS IT DISSIPATES OVER LAND. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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