Tropical Storm TALIM Advisory сб, 16.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (TALIM) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 20W (TALIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 179 NM NORTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.  ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASED.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A PGTW FIX AND 151526Z
89 AND 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  THIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DECOUPLING OF THE LLCC AND THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THIS
DECOUPLING IS ATTRIBUTED TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF T4.0 (65-77 KNOTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 68 KNOTS.  UPPER LEVEL
ATMOSPHERIC ANALYSIS SHOWS TY 20W IS ENTERING AN UNFAVORABLE AREA OF
VWS (30-50 KNOTS).  POLEWARD OUTFLOW FOR TALIM REMAINS GOOD AS IT
TAPS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM.  EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS BEEN
CUT OFF BY A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE EAST CHINA SEA.  THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF TALIM HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ALLOWING
FOR TALIM TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STR.  AS TALIM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL
ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENHANCED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDE JET STREAM.  THESE
FACTORS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF WINDS THROUGH TAU
12.  STRONG VWS (30-50 KNOTS) WILL INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
AS TALIM INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IT WILL
ACCELERATE IN FORWARD SPEED BY TAU 36 AND CONTINUING THROUGH TAU 72.
 BY TAU 48 TALIM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 72.  AS THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROGRESSES
THE SIZE OF THE 34 KNOT WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE.  DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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