MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, EVIDENT IN A 211229Z ASCAT PASS. A 211941Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WITH WEAK CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CORE IN A 211545Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TS NOCK-TEN IS LOCATED IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TS 30W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. B. TS 30W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS NOCK-TEN WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, DUE TO HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, PRIOR TO REACHING THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PHILIPPINES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 30W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN LUZON JUST AFTER TAU 96. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL; HOWEVER, IF THE TRACK SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES, THE CYCLONE COULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. ONCE THE SYSTEM EMERGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, MODELS DEPICT A COLD SURGE THAT WILL INCREASE THE VWS AND ADVECT COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. TS 30W WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SPREAD ONCE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DUE TO COMPETING FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN