MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE) WARNING NR 06// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 197 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES AND LINED UP WITH THE LLCC IN THE 061346Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS. TS AERE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IMPROVED DUAL OUTFLOW. ALSO, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 CELSIUS ARE VERY FAVORABLE. THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED DOWN BUT IS STILL TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 22W WILL TRACK EVEN SLOWER AND GENERALLY WESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. NEAR TAU 24, THE CYCLONE WILL REACH A COL BETWEEN THE STEERING STR AND A SECONDARY STR BUILDING OVER EASTERN CHINA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION BEFORE THE SECONDARY STR ASSUMES STEERING - NEAR TAU 48. AT THIS POINT, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IMPROVING IN THE NEAR TERM, ALLOWING THE STORM TO REACH A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS, SUSTAINED UP TO TAU 48 DURING THE QS STAGE. AFTERWARDS, THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NEW STR WILL INCREASE VWS AND PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, TRIGGERING A WEAKENING TREND. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE STR OVER CHINA WILL PUSH TS AERE ON A SOLID SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARDS HAINAN. THE INCREASED VWS AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECAY WITH TS 22W DISSIPATING JUST AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER HAINAN BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY SPREAD DUE TO THE COMPLICATED STEERING ENVIRONMENT PAST TAU 12. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN