MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 08// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR) IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH A TEMPORARY OBSCURATION OF THE RAGGED EYE. A 031743Z 88GHZ ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE, AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS, GIVEN THE TEMPORARY WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS IN EIR IMAGERY AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0/4.5 FROM PGTW AND T4.5/4.5 FROM RJTD. TY 15W REMAINS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, RESTRICTED ONLY TO THE WEST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TY 15W HAS TEMPORARILY JOGGED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CHINA. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. ASIDE FROM THE TEMPORARY INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH EASTERN CHINA, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR TY 15W THROUGH TAU 72. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO STEADILY INTENSIFY, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS EXPECTED BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT TY 15W WILL TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEAR TERM, FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS THE STR BUILDS BACK TOWARD THE WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. C. IN THE LONG TERM, TY 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD WHILE BEING STEERED BY THE STR TO THE EAST. BEYOND TAU 48, AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE TY 15W TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE KOREAN PENINSULA, BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BOTH A LARGE ALONG-TRACK AND CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, WITH UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING OF THE FORECASTED TURNS ALONG THE TRACK.// NNNN NNNN