MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 33W (THIRTY-THREE) WARNING NR 01// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 33W (THIRTY-THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AND DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AT 29 CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY ON THIS SYSTEM. B. TD 33W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST ASSUMES STEERING FROM THE CURRENT STR. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MINDANAO AFTER TAU 24 AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO. BY TAU 72, TD 33W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER PALAWAN JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO PRINCESA. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST, LIMITED ONLY BY FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE ISLANDS. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL REACH 60 KNOTS. C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 33W WILL RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STEERING STR WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND FURTHER INTENSIFY AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST, PEAKING AT A TYPHOON INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM TO 45 KNOTS RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL INTO SOUTHERN VIETNAM BY TAU 120. THE INITIAL SET OF NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREADING AT THE EXTENDED TAUS. NAVGEM IS A NOTABLE NORTHERN OUTLIER. GIVEN THESE AND THE FORMATIVE STAGE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN NNNN