MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 32W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 18// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 32W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM NORTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DISPERSE AND STRAY WESTWARD OF AN EXPOSED AND UNRAVELING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER PALAWAN. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON NEARBY OBSERVATIONS AND ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE INUNDATED WITH STRONG (30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY STRONG WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE REMNANT CONVECTION. TD 32W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TD 32W WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS, THE CYCLONE WILL EMERGE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). HOWEVER, AT THE SAME TIME, THE TD WILL ALSO BE EXPOSED TO A WIDESPREAD GALE-FORCE NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE. IN VIEW OF THIS, VWS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER AND LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN NNNN