MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 07// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 849 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEPENING OF CENTRAL CONVECTION AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. A 221627Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP, TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH INDICATIONS THAT A MICROWAVE EYE IS STARTING TO FORM. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND ALSO SUPPORTS THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 55 KNOTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO INCREASED, RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45-55 KNOTS). TS NOCK-TEN IS LOCATED IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND PRODUCT AND THE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATE THAT A POINT SOURCE ANTI-CYCLONE MAY ALSO BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM. TS 30W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE FLATTENING OUT ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 72. TS NOCK-TEN WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS), DUE TO HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND THE DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE, PRIOR TO REACHING THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PHILIPPINES NEAR TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COTC AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, DYNAMIC MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A 90-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TS 30W IS FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETE A RE-CURVE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF VIGOROUS NORTHEAST MONSOON FLOW OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. TS 30W WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE PHILIPPINES, DECREASING BELOW TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 120, WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER, DRIER AIR AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST SURGE. THE DIVERGENCE IN DYNAMIC MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS HAS INCREASED TO 275-NM AT TAU 120 DUE TO COMPETING FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS STARTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND SOUTH OF SUBIC BAY IN RESPONSE TO CHANGES IN THE MODEL TRACKERS. DUE TO THIS INSTABILITY IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS, THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FOUR FORECASTS, JUST SOUTH OF THE MOST RECENT CONSENSUS TRACK, WITH LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE.// NNNN NNNN