MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA) WARNING NR 18// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 329 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT RESEMBLES A LARGE, RAGGED EYE FILLED WITH SCATTERED SHALLOW CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER WARM SSTS. TY 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. TY 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF TY 24W STILL ATTEMPTING TO RECOVER AFTER INTERACTION WITH LUZON. IF THE LARGE AND RAGGED EYE CAN CONSOLIDATE WITH MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE LLCC, INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON HAINAN ISLAND. AFTER TRAVERSING THE GULF OF TONKIN, TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE FINAL LANDFALL IN EXTREME NORTHERN VIETNAM RIGHT AROUND TY 72W. C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM AS IT TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN