Tropical Storm HAIMA Advisory вт, 18.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A TIGHTLY SPIRALED SYSTEM WITH A 13 NM WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE
GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. A 171638Z AMSR2 89
GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A SOLID INNER RING OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A
SECONDARY OUTER RING FORMING WITH A 35 NM RADIUS, SUGGESTING AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS UNDERWAY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T6.0 TO T6.5 (115 TO 127 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOW EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 30 CELSIUS.
CURRENTLY TY HAIMA IS TRACKING NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY ON A
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY HAIMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE WILL MERGE WITH
ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24,
KEEPING A NORTHWESTERN TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO REACH 130 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN WEAKEN FOR A
PERIOD AS THE INNER EYE WALL IS REPLACED. EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF
INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST, REACHING
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS. LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHERN
COAST OF LUZON IS EXPECTED NEAR TAU 48 SETTING IN MOTION A WEAKENING
TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72 TY HAIMA WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STEERING RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTING FROM A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TO A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK. BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF
HONG KONG AND TRACKING INLAND AS IT COMPLETES ITS TRACK SHIFT.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEYOND TAU 72 SHOW SOME DIVERGENCE IN TRACK MOTION
AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS, BUT ALL AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS ARE
SHOWING A NORTHWARD CURVE AROUND THE STEERING RIDGE. DUE TO THE GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MODELS UP TO TAU 72 AND RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT AS IT
MAKES LANDFALL, THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
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