Tropical Storm AERE Advisory Вс, 09.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (AERE) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A DECAYING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081835Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE REVEALS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
AN EXPOSED LLCC. DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CENTER AND LACK OF
MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION, WHICH APPEARS TO BE QUASI-
STATIONARY IN NATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS BUT
HEDGED LOWER BASED ON THE MOST RECENT ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 35 KNOT
WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TS 22W IS TRACKING QUASI-STATIONARY
WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED SMALLER BASED ON THE 081351Z ASACT IMAGE.
   B. TS AERE WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS EXHIBITING QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOVEMENT UNTIL
A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THIS RIDGE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A MODERATE NORTHEAST SURGE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE WIND FLOW
THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND ADVECT COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO DRIVE TS 22W
SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE VORTEX
TRACKERS INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD HAINAN ISLAND. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 72. OVERALL, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE TIMING OF
THE TRACK CHANGE AND SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AFTER
TAU 24.//
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