Tropical Storm MALAKAS Advisory пт, 16.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419 NM SOUTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE
EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SAME
REPORTING AGENCIES, AS WELL AS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS. TY 18W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS WHILE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. A SMALL, 4
NM DIAMETER EYE IS EVIDENT IN RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE NEAR-TERM TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST AND THE 36-HOUR INTENSITY TREND HAS INCREASED A BIT. OTHERWISE,
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 18W IS EXPECTED TO TURN POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS AHEAD
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. STEADY TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM, FUELED BY
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE EAST, AS WELL AS HIGH
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AFTER TAU 48, TY 18W WILL CREST THE RIDGE AXIS
AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, AND THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LIES
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, BASED ON RECENT
AND EXPECTED MODEL ERROR TRENDS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 18W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY
TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT PASSES OVER COOLER
WATER AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. NUMERICAL MODEL SPREAD
INCREASES DURING THIS PERIOD, PARTICULARLY THE DEPICTED TRACK
SPEEDS. THE CURRENT EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
CONSENSUS FORECAST. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK
FORECAST.//
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