Tropical Storm NANMADOL Advisory Вс, 02.07.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (NANMADOL)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 351 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING AND SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL TURNING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES, BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION STILL CONSOLIDATING EVIDENCED IN RECENT
SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF
30 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.0-
T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS). A 011259Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A REGION
OF STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE AS A TUTT CELL JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS AIDED OUTFLOW OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, AND
WIND SHEAR VALUES ARE LOW. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE ALSO VERY WARM
NEAR 30 CELSIUS. A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST IS
CURRENTLY STEERING TD 05W ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL FORECAST AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FOR THIS SYSTEM.
   B. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STEER TD 05W NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS AND ACCELERATING
TO THE NORTHEAST. TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL
ENHANCE OUTFLOW. BEYOND TAU 24 SSTS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS TD 05W INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. TD 05W WILL TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS HONSHU BECOMING FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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