Tropical Storm MERBOK Advisory пн, 12.06.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W (MERBOK) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (MERBOK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 193 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT BUT MAINTAINED CONVECTIVE
DEPTH AND WRAP. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A TIGHT CLUSTER OF
WARM PIXELS IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF MULTI
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND
VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). TS 04W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CUT DOWN TO TAU 48 TO REFLECT DISSIPATION
OVER LAND. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
    B. TS MERBOK IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 12 TO THE
EAST OF HONG KONG AND TRACK NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND AS
IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK PRIOR TO LANDFALL WILL FUEL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO
A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
EASTERN CHINA, IN ADDITION TO INCREASED VWS WILL CAUSE RAPID EROSION
AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. REMNANTS OF TS 04W WILL EXIT INTO
THE YELLOW SEA. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHTER
AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR AND MID TERM LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN