Tropical Storm ONE Advisory Вс, 15.01.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE)
WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 191 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A
142318Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE AND A 142254Z CORIOLIS 36GHZ IMAGE REVEAL
A SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM HUYEN TRAN (WMO NUMBER 48919), LOCATED AT 8.0N 110.6E, PROVIDED
THE INITIAL EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM HAD BEGUN TO STRENGTHEN WITH A
REPORT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY 10-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 24 KNOTS
(APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH OF THE 14/18Z SYSTEM CENTER).
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST DAY,
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS (05 TO 15 KNOTS)
WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINED ROBUST THUS ALLOWING THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE LLCC. BASED ON THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION. TD 01W IS TRACKING
SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA SUPPORTS THE REGENERATION OF TD
01W, THEREFORE, JTWC HAS RESUMED WARNINGS. THIS PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF VIETNAM NEAR TAU 24. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TD 01W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES VIETNAM AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 PRIMARILY
DUE TO THIS INTERACTION WITH LAND.//
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