MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA) WARNING NR 13// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 10NM EYE AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION FURTHER DEEPENED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE FEATURE WHICH LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 151059Z 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TY 24W IS TRACKING IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. TY 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. IT IS POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR BALER, QUEZON, AND WILL EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12 NEAR LINGAYEN GULF. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO 80 KNOTS OVER LUZON; HOWEVER, FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND INTO THE SCS, PROMOTING A SECOND INTENSIFICATION PHASE - 95 KNOTS AT TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE ISLAND OF HAINAN BEFORE TAU 72. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY SARIKA WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STEERING STR. THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM. TY 24W WILL GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN MOSTLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, DISSIPATING BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN NNNN