Tropical Storm SARIKA Advisory сб, 15.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (SARIKA) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IN THE PAST SIX
HOURS WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE PHILIPPINES AND A
141842Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW AN EYE JUST EAST OF PANAY
ISLAND WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE ALSO
VERY FAVORABLE. TY SARIKA HAS STARTED TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TY SARIKA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR TO THE NORTH. VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION TO 90 KNOTS
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. EXPECT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO
LANDFALL OVER LUZON IN ABOUT 20 HOURS. THERE WILL BE A SHORT
WEAKENING PHASE AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS OVER THE RUGGED LUZON TERRAIN
BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) JUST BEFORE TAU 36.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE SCS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WHICH WILL
BEGIN A SECOND INTENSIFICATION PHASE. THE STEERING STR WILL
STRENGTHEN, FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS
HAINAN.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY SARIKA WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STEERING STR. THE SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAINAN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR HANOI,
VIETNAM. THE INTENSITY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLEX
AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION;
HOWEVER, INCREASED LAND INTERACTION WITH HAINAN WILL OFFSET THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY AT LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM WILL
ULTIMATELY BE TIED TO THE TRACK OF THE TYPHOON AS IT PASSES HAINAN.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY STABLE OVER THE PAST FOUR
HOURS; HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAN OUT ONCE THE SYSTEM
EMERGES IN THE SCS. DO TO THE MODEL SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST,
THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.//
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