Tropical Storm DUJUAN Advisory пн, 28.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 21W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE 44-NM EYE AND CONTINUES TO
HAVE HIGHLY SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A LOW (05-10 KNOT) VWS AREA WITH EXCELLENT
DIVERGENCE. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A STR EXTENSION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY DUJUAN WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE STR AND THE EXTENSION SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE EAST. EXPECT TY 21W
TO BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY DUE TO LOW OHC AND SOME LAND
INTERACTION IN TAU 12 AS WELL AS COMPETING WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF TAIWAN AND LOWER SST VALUES OF THE TAIWAN STRAIT BY TAU
24. MAKING LANDFALL IN CHINA BEFORE TAU 36, TY DUJUAN WILL CONTINUE
TO DECAY AS FRICTIONAL FORCES WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO COMPLETELY
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. ADDITIONALLY, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM TO TURN MORE POLEWARD AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
NNNN