Tropical Storm TOKAGE Advisory пн, 28.11.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W (TOKAGE)
WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 241 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME GREATLY
SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD AND DISPLACED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE
DEGRADED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) CAUSED BY THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BEING DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSED TO
THE STRONG WIND SURGE AT THE SURFACE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LAYER REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. AS TS TOKAGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, IT IS EXPECTED TO REVERSE
TRACK TO WESTWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT GETS EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE. TS 29W WILL RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO THE STRONG
VWS, DISSIPATING BY TAU 36, POSSIBLY SOONER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS UNIFIED IN THE OVERALL TRACK SOLUTION, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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