Tropical Storm TWENTYEIGHT Advisory сб, 12.11.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
137 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES INCLUDING 111618Z SSMI AND 111736Z GMI
IMAGES. THE INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEW BATCH OF DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH CONTINUES TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT.
TD 28W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
   B. TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, LIMITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLCC. THERE IS A
SMALL PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE DUE TO THE
PERSISTENT SHEAR. HOWEVER, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS CURRENTLY
REGARDED AS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO DUE TO ANTICIPATED PASSAGE OVER
VERY WARM WATER AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TD 28W SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS ENTRENCHED TO THE
NORTH. A MORE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TREND IS LIKELY AS VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO DROP OFF AFTER TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND
THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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