Tropical Storm TWENTYEIGHT Advisory пт, 11.11.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (TWENTYEIGHT)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
139 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS
HAVE BEGUN TO WRAP INTO A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE
ABOVE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES BETWEEN
T1.5 AND T2.0 (30-35 KNOTS) AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 101910Z WINDSAT
SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS
NEARLY SURROUNDING THE LLCC. HIGHER WINDS ARE INDICATED IN THE
WINDSAT DATA, BUT ANALYSIS INDICATES THESE ARE UNREPRESENTATIVE OF
THE ACTUAL WIND FIELD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND WEAKLY DIVERGENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING WESTWARD WITH THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY ON THIS SYSTEM.
   B. TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE STR TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE
VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAK WESTERLY OUTFLOW, WHICH
WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAU'S, THE STR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON A
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, BRINGING TD 26W TO 60 KNOTS BY END OF
FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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