Tropical Storm MA-ON Advisory чт, 10.11.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 397
NM NORTHWEST OF ENEWETAK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ACCORDING TO THE LLCC EVIDENT IN THE 091805Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IS
STILL VERY ASYMMETRIC, A 091105Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING 25 TO 35 KNOT
WINDS FALLING ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE ALONG WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WARRANTS THE INITIATION OF WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF
TD 27W, WHICH IS RESTRICTING ITS POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND EXERTING A
NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 25 KNOTS)
OVER THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 27W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR THE SUSTENANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND CONDITIONS
ARE NOT FORECAST TO IMPROVE IN THE COMING DAYS. ALL DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TD 27W WILL REMAIN WEAK IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
CONTINUED MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE
AROUND TAU 24, BUT A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT,
WITH DISSIPATION OVER WATER EXPECTED BY TAU 72. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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