Tropical Storm MEARI Advisory Вс, 06.11.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MEARI) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 361 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 051857Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE, HOWEVER, DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
HAS ERODED WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE ANTICYCLONE PRVIOUSLY POSITIONED OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER HAS
SHIFTED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER, AND IS NOW HINDERING DEVELOPMENT
DESPITE CONTINUED VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY 26W IS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY MEARI IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. TY 26W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW THROUGH TAU 24, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
AFTERWARDS DUE TO INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. NEAR TAU 24, TY MEARI WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND EMBEDS
UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WESTERLIES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM GAINS
LATITUDE. RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER
TAU 36. THE TYPHOON WILL GAIN FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND COMPLETE
ETT AS A STRONG COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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