Tropical Storm MEARI Advisory пт, 04.11.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (MEARI)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 26W (MEARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 641 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING CYCLONE WITH EXPANDING FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED AMIDST A CLUSTER OF AGENCY FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.3 AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS MEARI IS TRACKING TOWARD A WEAKNESS
BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL HIGHS (STH) - ONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
OTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS MEARI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY ON A MORE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARD A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE TWO STH
FEATURES. STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO FORECAST AS
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND VWS REMAINS FAVORABLE NEAR THE STR
AXIS, PEAKING AT 75 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, ONCE PASSED THE STR AXIS, TS MEARI WILL BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AS VWS INCREASES WITHIN THE DEEP, PREVAILING WESTERLIES. TS 26W IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE LATER TAUS, AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A TIGHT THICKNESS
GRADIENT, BECOMING A COLD-CORE LOW BY END OF FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITH GFDN AS THE SOLE WESTERN
OUTLIER, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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