Tropical Storm MEARI Advisory чт, 03.11.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTYSIX)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W (TWENTYSIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
932 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS DEEPENED
AND WRAPPED INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 021150Z ASCAT
BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE
ASCAT IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD WITH THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY ON THIS SYSTEM.
   B. TD 26W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD AS A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST COMPETES WITH THE STEERING
STR AND RETARDS THE CYCLONES FORWARD MOTION. THE MODERATELY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PERSIST AND PROMOTE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING TYPHOON INTENSITY BY TAU 72 AS TD 26W
DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE WARM PHILIPPINE SEA (SSTS 28-30C).
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND BECOME
THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, SPEEDING UP THE SYSTEMS WESTWARD
PROGRESSION. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST,
BRINGING TD 26W TO 70 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT AND WIDELY SPREAD WITH SOME, INCLUDING NAVGEM,
FAVORING A DOMINANT NER STEERING THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD. THE OTHER
CONSENSUS MEMBERS, INCLUDING GFS, FAVOR A DOMINANT STR STEERING THE
SYSTEM WESTWARD. IN VIEW OF THE WIDE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST
WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE WESTWARD SOLUTION.//
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