Tropical Storm IN-FA Advisory ср, 18.11.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (IN-FA) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
SOUTH OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AND BUILDING OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 171405Z GCOM-W1 36H MICROWAVE PASS IS
STARTING TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EYE FEATURE. THE IR LOOP
DOES NOT CURRENTLY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE FEATURE. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD INDICATE A MARGINAL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE IMPROVING DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED GCOM IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW
WITH VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEING STEERED BY THE STR EXTENSION AND IN THE
LATER TAUS BY THE MORE DOMINANT LOBE OF THE STR ANCHORED TO THE WEST
OF GUAM. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTEGRITY, BEING MODIFIED ONLY
SLIGHTLY BY THE FAIRLY ZONAL MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72, SURPASSING TYPHOON
STRENGTH AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DUE TO THE CURRENT HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TS IN-FA MAY INCREASE ITS INTENSITY AT A
MORE RAPID RATE; HOWEVER, MODELS DO NOT CURRENTLY REFLECT THAT
SCENARIO.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, EXPECT A GREATER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION AS THE
STR DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
POSITIVE OUTFLOW AND THE SYSTEM TO REACH 110 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND HAS COME
INTO TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH ONLY MINOR VARIATION
THROUGH TAU 120. BASED ON THE IMPROVING MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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