Tropical Storm ONE Advisory Вс, 08.01.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH
FRAGMENTED BANDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WHICH HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A 071308Z
METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED AND ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE PRESENCE OF 25 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE ASCAT IMAGE IS THE BASIS FOR THE
INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY, BOTH ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE LAGGING BEHIND DUE THE LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.  CURRENTLY TD 01W IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD GUIDED BY THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE PHILIPPINES IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 AND WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
ORGANIZATION WHILE INTERACTING WITH LAND THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 48
TD 01W WILL ENTER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF INTENSIFICATION AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. HOWEVER THE
PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 30 KNOTS DURING THIS SHORT
WINDOW.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ESTABLISHING PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW.
DISSIPATION OVER WATER IS EXPECTED BY TAU 96.  AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK TRAJECTORY, BUT IS
LIMITED ON INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THERE IS A DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK RELYING HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS,
BUT DUE TO THE LACK OF OTHER DATA THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK.//
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