Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory Вс, 17.05.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR
41//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 07W DOLPHIN LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 342 NM WEST
OF ANATAHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A
SYMMETRICAL 30 NM EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO THE LLCC. THE BANDING IS CONFIRMED BY A 161144Z AMSU-B IMAGE,
WITH BOTH SATELLITES GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION.
THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 140 KTS DUE TO THE OVERALL
BETTER STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 7.0 FROM PTGW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CONTINUING LOW VWS. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR,
SOON TO CROSS THE AXIS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 07W WILL TRACK MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS AS IT CROSSES THE RIDGE AXIS BEFORE RECURVING TO THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECT SOME INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES
POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. BY TAU 24,
STY DOLPHIN WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS VWS INCREASES AND THE
SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT A CONTINUING DOWNWARD TREND
IN OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD DUE TO
INCREASING VWS, UNFAVORABLE SSTS NORTH OF 25N AND THE INFLUENCE OF
THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, STARTING ETT AS STY DOLPHIN
BEGINS TO BE EMBEDDED IN AN APPROACHING COLD CORE SYSTEM.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, STY DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND DEEPER INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. HIGH
VWS, COOLING SSTS, AND THE PRESENCE OF COLD DRY AIR WILL GRADUALLY
FORCE THE SYSTEM TO DECAY. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE SYSTEM
WILL COMPLETE ETT AND TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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