Tropical Storm MALAKAS Advisory чт, 15.09.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 18W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 528 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM AND THE
FORMATION OF A RAGGED 6 NM WIDE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 141815Z SSMI 89
GHZ IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS
IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 TO 90
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH IMPROVING OUTFLOW AND WEAK (5 TO 10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SSTS ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE NEAR 29
CELSIUS. TY 18W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 18W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ON A NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. TY MALAKAS
WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE. THE SYSTEM WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU
48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY 18W WILL REACH THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF THE STEERING STR AND TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE STR.
AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
WITHIN STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. VWS WILL ALSO INCREASE
RAPIDLY BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120 LEADING TO RAPID WEAKENING OF TY
MALAKAS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN KYUSHU JUST
AFTER TAU 96, AND THEN TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND
JAPAN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER-LEVEL STEERING PATTERN. OVERALL,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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