Tropical Storm SARIKA Advisory пт, 14.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (SARIKA)
WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 24W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 426 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL CONSOLIDATING WITH NASCENT
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN INDISTINCT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 131706Z GPM 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THAT
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN AREAL EXTENT, BUT IS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE FIXES FROM ALL
AGENCIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE 1706Z GPM PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL
AGENCIES REPORTING T2.5 (35 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD
OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST, ALONG WITH A GOOD EQUATORWARD
CHANNEL. HOWEVER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM IS PROVIDING PRESSURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
AND LIMITING INTENSIFICATION AT THE CURRENT TIME. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE BETWEEN 30 AND 31 CELSIUS AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CURRENTLY LOW AT 5-10 KTS. TD 24W IS
TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENDING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE WESTERN PACIFIC.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE RIDGE EXTENSION TROUGH TAU 48. BY TAU 48 THE FAR WESTWARD
PORTION OF THE RIDGE ARM WILL BUILD, DEVELOPING INTO THE DOMINANT
STEERING RIDGE MOVING NORTH OF LUZON AND ACCELERATING TD 24W
WESTWARD. SLOW AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TROUGH TAU 24
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE AND
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PRESSURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. BY
TAU 36 AND THROUGH LANDFALL AFTER TAU 48, INTENSIFICATION RATES WILL
INCREASE AS A POINT-SOURCE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN CLOSE VICINITY
TO TS SARIKA, IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONDITIONS, PEAKING AT
85 KTS AT TAU 48. ACTUAL INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AS
LANDFALL IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 48, ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION. TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER LUZON AS
A TYPHOON.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TD 24W IS EXPECTED TO RESURFACE OVER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WEAKENED BUT LARGELY INTACT. THE STEERING RIDGE
WILL BE FULLY DEVELOPED AND CONTINUE TO STEER TD 24 WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING OUT
AT 80 KNOTS BEFORE TRACKING OVER HAINAN NEAR TAU 120. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU 96 AND
LANDFALL, AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO
INTENSIFICATION IN THIS AREA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REFERENCE TO THE TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR MODEL
SPREAD IN THE NEAR TERM REFLECTING THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC AT
THIS TIME. WITH REFERENCE TO THE FORWARD SPEED, DYNAMIC MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT ALONG TRACK DIVERGENCE, DUE TO THE GENERALLY WEAK
STEERING CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THIS PLACES A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TIMING OF LANDFALL AND THE AMOUNT OF TIME AVAILABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST INTENSITY.//
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