Tropical Storm AERE Advisory чт, 06.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTY-TWO)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (TWENTY-TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
424 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND FRAGMENTED AS IT CROSSES
THE LUZON STRAIT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP FROM THE TAIWAN CENTRAL WEATHER BUREAU WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH MINIMAL
SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW. A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST IS CAUSING
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES; EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER, ARE
FAVORABLY WARM AT 30C. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS
TOWARDS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE RESULTING IN WEAK INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 40 KNOTS BY
TAU 48.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, A SECONDARY STR BUILDING OVER EASTERN CHINA WILL
ASSUME STEERING AND CAUSE TD 22W TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS WILL,
HOWEVER, INCREASE VWS AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY RESULTING IN GRADUAL DECAY. BY END OF FORECAST, TD 22W WILL
BE REDUCED BACK TO 25 KNOTS AS IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE NEAR HAINAN.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODELS ARE WIDELY SPREAD ESPECIALLY AFTER TAU
12, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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