Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN Advisory сб, 24.12.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 527 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DEEPEN, BECOME MORE
SYMMETRICAL, AND WRAP TIGHTER INTO A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 11-NM EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(RI). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 30W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OUT ON A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH
TAU 72, MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN LUZON. TY NOCK-TEN WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED RI. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND AFTER TAU 36, AND
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES SOUTHERN
LUZON. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 120 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER,
NEAR TAU 24.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, NOCK-TEN IS FORECAST TO TURN SLIGHTLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH COOLER,
DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON SURGE IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA, AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE DOMINANT
NORTHEAST FLOW. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SLIGHTLY (BUT REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT) AS UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE TIMING OF THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK CHANGE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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