Tropical Storm TWO Advisory сб, 15.04.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN ORGANIZED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 141217Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE,
HOWEVER, SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS). TD
02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW-TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE EASTERN VISAYAS NEAR TAU 18. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
DESPITE THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM, THERE ARE KEY
FACTORS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION, PRIMARILY, THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION, THE CYCLIC NATURE OF THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. TD 02W MAY
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 30 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OR REMAIN
STEADY AT 25 KNOTS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
PRIOR TO WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES
AFTER TAU 24. THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 48 BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO REGENERATE
DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.//
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