Tropical Storm HAIMA Advisory Вс, 16.10.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 25W (HAIMA) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 25W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF FAIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ASYMMETRICALLY SURROUNDING A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS OBSCURED BY HIGH CIRRUS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A 151713Z
AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50
KNOTS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD (T3.0) AND PGTW
(T3.5). TS 25W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION,
CONSISTING OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. IT IS TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, TS 25W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION, WITH WARM OCEAN WATERS, EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THUS, A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST, AND TS 25W IS EXPECTED TO REACH SUPER
TYPHOON INTENSITY IN APPROXIMATELY 3 DAYS.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 25W WILL HAVE AN ADDITIONAL DAY TO INTENSIFY
PRIOR TO POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON, WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THIS IS REFLECTED IN JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWING A
DECREASE BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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