Tropical Storm MAYSAK Advisory чт, 02.04.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 04W (MAYSAK) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAYSAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 814 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEP CONVECTIVE CENTRAL CORE WITH A 19-NM EYE
THAT SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR BEING PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM'S
CIRCULATION, WEAKENING THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. A 011740Z MHS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH THE MOST INTENSE CENTRAL CONVECTION ALONG
THE NORTHERN EYEWALL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH 10 TO 20 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR THROUGH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS IS IMPINGING ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 120 KNOTS TO REFLECT THE WEAKENING
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS SUPPORTED BY AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 115 TO 127 KNOTS. TY MAYSAK IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 04W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS VWS
INCREASES (25-30 KNOTS) AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DECREASES. THIS
WEAKENING WILL BE EXACERBATED DUE TO INCREASED FRICTION AS THE
SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL LUZON NEAR TAU 72.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, TY MAYSAK WILL TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL
LUZON UNDER THE STEERING STR. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
IT EMERGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DUE TO POOR ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, INCLUDING 15 TO 20 KNOT VWS. IN ADDITION, NEAR TAU 120,
TY 04W WILL MOVE INTO SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 CELSIUS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72,
HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT SPREAD (150 NM) AS IT TRACKS THROUGH
LUZON AND ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. BASED ON THE FORECASTED
INTENSITY, THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE MOST PLAUSIBLE. THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
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