Tropical Storm NOUL Advisory пн, 04.05.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (NOUL) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (NOUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 154 NM EAST
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH A COMPACT
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD, AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 031644Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE
PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN
T2.0-2.5. TS 06W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER A RIDGE AXIS,
WITH LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A POINT SOURCE JUST
TO THE EAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ROBUST OUTFLOW
IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE RADIAL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A
FAVORABLE 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
   B. TS 06W IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AND SLOW OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE THE WEAKENED STR TO THE NORTH GRADUALLY
REBUILDS. AFTER TAU 36, FORWARD MOTION SHOULD INCREASE AND RESUME A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE, ENABLING NOUL TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE
SPREAD, WHICH VARIES BASED ON STRENGTH OF THE STR DEPICTED IN EACH
OF THE MODELS. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
THE OBSERVED WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE, THE NEAR-TERM JTWC
FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 06W WILL TRACK STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES
REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE CTCX, GFDL, AND HWRF MESOCALE MODELS ALL TAKE
THE SYSTEM OVER 100 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN INCREASINGLY SPREAD AS DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
DEPICTION OF THE STR RESULTS IN EITHER A STRAIGHT-RUNNING OR A
RECURVING TRACK. BASED ON THIS DIVERGENCE IN GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC 96 AND 120 HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS IS LOW.//
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