Tropical Storm DOLPHIN Advisory Вс, 10.05.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091536Z NOAA-19
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, PGTW SATELLITE
FIX AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND CURRENT
STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT UNDER EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW WITH MODERATE (20 TO 25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE 29 CELSIUS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TS 07W CONTINUES TO
TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH BUILDS IN TO ASSUME STEERING.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
BUILDING STR ASSUMES STEERING. UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS CAUSING
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48, AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT
WITH DECREASING VWS AND AN INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL
LEAD TO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS DOLPHIN WILL REMAIN ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS AT TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS OVERALL IN AGREEMENT INDICATING A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK; HOWEVER, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT TRACK SPEED
DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
NNNN