MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 30W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 15// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 30W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH SUPER-DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 7-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR AND ON A COMPOSITE RADAR REFLECTIVITY LOOP FROM PAGASA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED VERY INTENSE EIR SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STY 30W IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, AS EVIDENCED IN TPW IMAGERY, DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM HAS LIKELY PREVENTED FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. STY 30W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72-HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER CATANDUANES ISLAND AFTER TAU 12 THEN DRAG ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON INCLUDING BICOL REGION, PASSING JUST SOUTH OF MANILA BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS). STY NOCK- TEN WILL INITIALLY GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE AT 80-KNOT TYPHOON INTENSITY WHEN IT EXITS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. C. AFTER TAU 72, SUPER TYPHOON NOCK-TEN WILL BEGIN CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY MONSOON SURGE OVER THE SCS. RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE ASSOCIATED DRYER AIR AND ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// FORECAST TRACK.//