Tropical Storm MELOR Advisory пн, 14.12.

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 28W (MELOR) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 28W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 369NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
8-NM DIAMETER EYE, WITH DVORAK ANALYSIS SUGGESTING THE PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS LIKELY ENDED AS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
TY MELOR IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH THE PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 115
KNOTS, AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE FALLING DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), 28-29 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS NO
LONGER INDICATED.
   B. TY MELOR WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS, GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, AND INCREASING LAND INTERACTION, THE INTENSITY
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU
36, THIS DECAY TREND WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING VWS AND THE INTRUSION OF COLD DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG CONTINENTAL COLD SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. BETWEEN TAUS
48-72, TY 28W WILL SLOW AS THE STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS FROM A DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW TO THE LOW LEVEL SURGE FLOW.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, A GREATLY WEAKENED TY 28W WILL ACCELERATE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE STRONG NORTHERLY COLD SURGE IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO
TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE UP TO THAT PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
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